he Ottawa Carleton District School Board staff scrambled to cobble together a sweeping report delivered to trustees August 28 recommending in part the closure of the Elgin Street and Mutchmor public schools in downtown Ottawa's Central Family of schools cluster.
This report was requested by OCDSB trustees earlier this year to bring the average utilization of provincially-defined "classroom" space inside the Greenbelt area to 90% or more to help ensure the maximum possible new provincially-provided capital funds to the OCDSB in the short-to-medium term.
Staff were handed an impossible task and the report shows this. Central Family parents with school-age children and others in all our communities are organizing themselves to be able to act forcefully against possible closure decisions by trustees on their self-imposed October deadline.
If these closures go ahead, not only will immediately affected neighborhoods lose an essential part of their communities but their children will suffer being crowded into schools in other neighborhoods' schools.
And the schools forced to accept these redirected students would suffer greatly from overpopulation. Neither provincial funding formulae nor the staff report's classroom space utilization calculations take account of yard space and this is already in some cases critically low.
The report acknowledges the forecast increases busing difficulties, traffic hazards and increased use of portables at inner schools but was barred by the framework from allowing such considerations to alter its closure recommendations.
Central schools do not typically have the luxury of large paved and grassed expanses as a resource they can make use of. The nature of allschools will change, perhaps irrevocably, for the worse. Artificial classroom utilization targets are ignoring every other consideration about what constitutes a quality education and learning environment.
If the OCDSB were to become maximally efficient, then just one mega-school would serve for all students inside the Greenbelt. Of course everyone recognizes this would also be unacceptable for a great variety of reasons.
Under the recommended closures Hopewell's population would balloon to 830 students in 2001/02 from 716 recognized this year. Hopewell already has the second greatest number of students of all public schools inside the Greenbelt.
As well, Hopewell is already certainly at or very near the lowest Central Family school for per capita yard space and currently has a larger school population than the next two Central family schools combined! Are we to usher in the era of the puppy mill?
While lamenting the fact that children in our Central Family neighborhoods will be packed to a utilization rate of near 95% through 2006 under the closure recommendations, the staff report is able to rationalize this agreed-upon unfortunate state of affairs since very long-term OCDSB demographic projections up to 2021 show a 42% decline in school-age population inside the Greenbelt.
Is this projection really believable? Won't currently young suburban populations where many want new schools built right now with the new money not be expected to age even more dramatically over this same period? What will have happened to the children of greater Hamlin town by 2021?
OCDSB projections show an increase in school-age population inside the Greenbelt of 6% up to2006 and declining only thereafter. Is this really the time to close large numbers of our schools?
Overall long-term projections fly in the face of
a) Regional projections of substantial continued growth in the Region over the next few years,
b) an increased amount of infill housing and apartment conversion in the downtown areas, and
c) the new trend of a flight back to mature urban residential areas are able to provide families with a greater sense of place and access to services.
Even if these projections are substantially correct, why not make closure decisions in 2005 when many things will have become much clearer?
In spite of a great clamoring for transparency from various community groups for months, the OCDSB has not publicly provided any details of the sources or assumptions used to construct their demographic projections. Why is the OCDSB so reluctant to demonstrate its calculations?
Preliminary, unofficial enrolment returns at the time of writing show OCDSB enrollment projections for this fall may already be dated and even now we may be approaching 90% utilization across the Central Family schools without closures.
OCDSB staff admit they have been asked to make recommendations even though they don't have comparative utilization rates for schools they do not intend to close (available only later this fall),Regional council passed a motion requesting OCDSB delay any closure decisions, the Region has initiated a new demographic study to replace its old one which the OCDSB report relied on to great degree and an OCDSB decision whether to expand or contract enrichment programs (having major potential impacts on Central school populations) will only be taken much later this fall.
What can be done at this stage of the game? As the report points out, trustees could wait a few months or years to make closure decisions, the declared decision deadline is an artificial one. They could choose to make these decisions after the fall elections and not unfairly saddle the incoming Board with years of fallout.
They could accept all, some or none of the closure recommendations. They could go for all, some or none of the new provincial capital dollars next year. They could choose to temporarily rebalance the inner Greenbelt impact with some other utilization than 90% pending assembly of better demographic and other information.
A significant majority of the schools inside the Greenbelt will lose a school under the current proposals. Residents should make it clear to trustees where they stand on school closures in advance of Board elections this fall. Contacting your school council and finding out how you might help fight would be a good start. With artificial time pressures acting against community debate, time is of the essence.