ur ignorance is not so vast as our failure to use what we know."
So wrote M. K. Hubert many years ago. The truth of his words can be applied to many situations, but they refer specifically to today's problem with oil supply.
As the drama of oil prices unfolds, we have to ask why policy makers, who for years have had access to this information, continue to steer society in the direction of increasing oil use.
Why have we built our cities on the assumption of cheap, oil-based transportation? Why do we pursue international dependencies based on the long distance transport of our life needs?
It has been four decades since Mr. Hubert identified the inevitability of tomorrow's oil crunch. The rising price of oil is not the product of greedy producers or government taxes. It is the inevitable result of our steadily increasing consumption of a finite resource.
As a resource supply specialist, Mr. Hubert identified what is now called the Hubert Curve of Resource Production. It goes like this. First, a use is found for a resource. Then production begins and consumption increases as the resource becomes available on the market. As use grows, production expands, initially using up the most easily tapped reserves and then moving into supplies that are harder to reach.
Consumption grows as more and more people find more ways to use the resource. Eventually, as it becomes harder and harder to find and extract new reserves, consumer demand becomes greater than supply. This is called the Hubert Peak.
After that, the price of the resource rises sharply until consumption falls to the level of available supply. Supply proceeds into a steady decline until the resource is practically eliminated.
Mr. Hubert's methodology for predicting this pattern of resource exploitation is broadly accepted. A detailed explanation and abundant information about the petroleum situation is available at: www.hubbertpeak.com/index.html
With the exception of a brief dip following the 1970's "oil crisis", we have consumed more oil every year since the first commercial production. The price rise we are experiencing is because producers are either unwilling or unable to increase production. If they are unwilling, it is because they know they will soon be unable to do so and soon after that, they will be unable to continue producing even at their present rate.
Today's problem with oil supplies is not a surprise. The petroleum industry, governments and independent consultants have known of the approaching peak for many years. There are five independent studies available at: www.hubbertpeak.com/curves.htm. These studies all predicted the oil peak this decade.
With this information available for years, why have we continued to build permanent infrastructure that requires oil-powered vehicles? Why have we pursued economic policy dependent on long distance transport?
At the Hubert Curve site you can find a presentation made to the British House of Commons last year by Dr. Colin Campbell, www.hubbertpeak.com/campbell/commons.htm
With a lifetime of exploring for oil, Dr. Campbell describes the development of exploration technology from the hit and miss technique of the early days to the sophisticated methods used today. We can be sure that there are no unexpected large reserves awaiting discovery to justify our unwillingness to act on the fact that oil is limited.
We are consuming oil faster than the rate of discovery since 1980. We now use four barrels from reserves for every new barrel discovered.
Dr. Campbell states, "The general situation seems so obvious. How can governments be oblivious to these realities and their implications...given the critical importance of oil to our entire economy?"
We need to join Dr. Campbell in asking why, because our leaders haveobviously not paid attention. Ask your elected representatives when they will start making decisions based on the understanding that the age of oil is beginning to wane. For contact info for all MPs call 1-800-667-3355.
We have to move away from dependency toward sustainable local provision of our basic needs. This would insulate us from depleting oil reserves and lead to far more local employment.
By acting locally to meet our needs, we would see the impact of our actions and would be inclined to treat the environment, on which we are ultimately dependent, with the sensitivity required for long-term well-being.
"Oil has to be found before it can be produced, meaning that there is an obvious relationship between discovery and production. It follows that the peak of discovery in the 1960s, which is now a historical fact, has to be followed by a corresponding peak of production." Colin Campbell
For more information on sustainability and the environment, visit www.cyberus.ca/choose.sustain or write
Sustainability Project
P.O. Box 374,
Merrickville, Ontario, K0G 1N0
(613) 269-3500
e-mail: sustain@web.ca